First a bit about the blog, then a bunch about the blogger.
I've been predicting a financial meltdown for four or five years. When I moved back to Seattle in late 2003, I ran into one neighbor who was renovating his house in anticipation of flipping it. Another neighbor had bought some property in a nasty section of town with the same intent. My message to both of them was the same: I don't know when it will happen, but we are in for a real estate crash that will make your teeth rattle.
I've always been early to the party with my calls. In 1990, I had a hard time getting a financial industry job because I was too bullish. In 1999, I pulled the plug on the tech boom and promptly lost $90,000 on naked puts. Timing, dammit, timing! Now that the real estate asteroid has entered the atmosphere, I have "I told you so" rights. Cold comfort.
So, I'm going to do what I always do: try to explain it to anyone who cares to have it explained to them. It's a damn good thing I don't have to make a living at this. In any case, the first few postings here will be backgrounders. Over time, I expect (or hope, anyway) this to be a dynamic blog. Think of the "Basics" postings as my version of Calculated Risk's Uber-Nerd postings: an attempt to educate. Trust me, it'll get better.
Now, for some stuff about me. No one can be all things to all people. We all come from somewhere. I think we get the most from each other if we "consider the source," and seek as many sources as we can find.
As I write this introduction, I am in my late 40s. I have an undergraduate degree from a major university, and an M.B.A. from an East Coast grad school whose name everyone would recognize. I was grew up in Milwaukee, WI and currently live in Seattle. I am retired. I own my house, as in "the mortgage is paid off."
I have had two careers, one as a journalist and the other as a financial analyst. In the first career, I worked for three publications: a small-city newspaper, a metropolitan newspaper, and finally in Washington, D.C. as an accredited congressional and White House correspondent. In the third job, among other things covered the Federal Reserve. As was fairly common, I wrote for publications other than the one I worked for and from time to time was a television and radio guest.
As a financial analyst, I worked for three enterprises. In the first one, I was a financial analyst and portfolio manager. I started as a generalist, and over time gravitated to technology companies. In the second and third positions I was a technology analyst, and as such I had a ring-side seat at the dot-com frauds of the 1990s. Also in the third position, I acted as a venture capitalist, and at one point sat on the board of directors of a private company.
